November Tax Projection for Freelancers in 2026: From Schedule C Profit to Your Total Tax Bill and Your January 15 Payment

Published: November 3, 2026 · Reading time: 15 min

TL;DR: A tax projection is the same arithmetic as your return, run in November while you can still change the answer. Walk down the Form 1040 in order: Schedule C profit, self-employment tax, half of it as a deduction, the $16,100 standard deduction for an unmarried filer, the QBI deduction with its limits, then the 2026 rate table. In the worked example below, a single freelancer projecting $92,000 of profit owes about $19,925 of federal income and self-employment tax, roughly 21.7% of profit. The QBI deduction is $13,880, not $17,100, because the taxable-income cap binds. With $9,750 already paid, the penalty-proof January 15 payment is $3,250, but the payment that avoids an April surprise is $10,175. A $5,000 business expense saves $1,524, so it is not free money. Confirm everything with a CPA or EA.

Most freelancers meet their tax bill twice: once in April, when the return says what it is, and once in January, when the fourth-quarter payment comes due. By then most of the useful part is over. Between now and December 31 you can still decide when to place a purchase in service, when to collect an invoice and whether to fund a retirement account, but only if you know roughly where you stand.

This guide builds the projection one line at a time, using the 2026 figures from IRS sources. It ends with a table that prices each year-end move in a specific household, because the savings per dollar are smaller and stranger than the usual rules of thumb suggest. If you only want a percentage to set aside, our guide to how much to set aside for taxes covers that. This post is for the person who wants the actual number and wants to see where it came from.

Why November is the right month

Three clocks are running at once.

• December 31, 2026 closes most doors. Under the cash method, the date you pay or are paid usually decides the year, and equipment counts in the year it is placed in service. Our guides to prepaying business expenses, placed-in-service dates and deferring income cover those moves.
• January 15, 2027, a Friday, is the due date for the fourth estimated tax payment. Publication 505 (2026) lists it as the 2026 due date for the period that runs from September 1 to December 31.
• The return due date controls a few moves that can wait. Publication 560 says: "To deduct contributions for a year, you must make the contributions by the due date (including extensions) of your tax return for the year." That sentence is from the edition written for 2025 returns, but it describes the rule for SEP contributions in general.

A projection is what lets you choose among these. Without one you are guessing which door matters.

What you need before you start

Gather five things. None of them requires tax software.

1. Year-to-date Schedule C net profit from your books: income received minus expenses paid, which is what a cash-method return reports.
2. A realistic forecast for November and December. Use invoices you expect to collect and bills you expect to pay, not hopes.
3. Other income that touches the same return: a spouse's wages, interest, a retirement distribution. The example below has none.
4. Payments already made: estimated tax payments and any withholding from a job.
5. Your 2025 return: total tax (Form 1040, line 24 on the 2025 form) and adjusted gross income (line 11b), for the safe harbor test.

If your books are behind, this is the step that costs the most time. Receipts that are scanned as you go make the year-to-date profit figure something you can read rather than reconstruct. The free CentSense tier includes 10 AI receipt scans a month.

The projection, line by line

Line numbers below come from the 2025 forms, the latest posted when this was written. Check the 2026 versions when they appear.

Step 2: self-employment tax

Schedule SE tells you to multiply net profit by 92.35% (0.9235), which gives net earnings from self-employment. Line 10 multiplies the smaller of that figure or the room left under the social security limit by 12.4%, and line 11 multiplies the whole figure by 2.9%. The sum is your self-employment tax.

For 2026, Publication 505 puts the social security limit at $184,500: "The annual limit is $184,500 in 2026." A freelancer with $92,000 of profit never reaches it, but one with wages from a job can, because the limit is shared across all earnings. The mechanics for that case are in our post on self-employment tax with a W-2 job.

Line 13 of Schedule SE is labelled "Deduction for one-half of self-employment tax" and multiplies line 12 by 50%. That half comes off income tax. It does not reduce self-employment tax itself.

Step 5: the standard deduction

Rev. Proc. 2025-32 sets the 2026 standard deduction at $16,100 for unmarried individuals who are not heads of household, $24,150 for heads of household and $32,200 for joint returns. If you itemize, substitute your itemized total. Our guide to standard vs. itemized deductions explains when that is worth the trouble.

Step 6: the QBI deduction, and its limits

This is the line that most often turns a good projection into a wrong one. The qualified business income deduction is not "20% of profit." Section 199A(a) reads:

"...an amount equal to the lesser of— (1) the combined qualified business income amount of the taxpayer, or (2) an amount equal to 20 percent of the excess (if any) of— (A) the taxable income of the taxpayer for the taxable year, over (B) the net capital gain (as defined in section 1(h)) of the taxpayer for such taxable year."

The instructions for Form 8995 put the same cap in plain words: "your total QBI deduction is limited to 20% of your taxable income, calculated before the QBI deduction, minus net capital gain (increased by any qualified dividends)."

There are three separate checks, and passing one says nothing about the others:

1. The taxable-income cap above. It applies at every income level.
2. The W-2 wage and property limit. Section 199A(b)(3)(A) says that for a taxpayer whose taxable income does not exceed the threshold amount, the wage-and-property limit is applied "without regard to" subparagraph (B), which is the limit itself. In other words, it matters only above the threshold. For 2026, Rev. Proc. 2025-32 sets the threshold for "All Other Returns" (unmarried filers) at $201,750 and the phase-in range amount at $276,750; the joint figures are $403,500 and $553,500.
3. The specified service trade or business exclusion. Under section 199A(d)(3)(A), a service business is still treated as qualified below the threshold plus $75,000, with only an applicable percentage counted inside the phase-in range. Consultants, writers, designers and many others should read our guide to the QBI deduction before assuming where they fall.

QBI itself is net of the deductions attributable to the business. The Form 8995 instructions say this "includes, but isn't limited to, unreimbursed partnership expenses, business interest expense, deductible part of self-employment tax, self-employment health insurance deduction, and contributions to qualified retirement plans." So a projection that takes 20% of raw Schedule C profit is already too high before the cap even enters.

Steps 7 and 8: tax from the table

The 2026 rate table for unmarried individuals, from Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (Table 3), is below. Rates apply only to the slice of income inside each band.

Add the self-employment tax from Schedule 2 and you have the federal number that matters for cash planning. State income tax is not in it. See our guide to state estimated tax payments for that side.

Worked example: Dana, a single freelance consultant

Dana is 41, unmarried, with no dependents and no income except her business. She has no Marketplace advance credit, takes the standard deduction and has no capital gains. Her books show:

• January through October net profit: $78,400
• Expected November and December net profit: $13,600
• Projected 2026 net profit: $92,000 (78,400 plus 13,600)
• Estimated payments made so far: $3,250 on each of April 15, June 15 and September 15, or $9,750
• 2025 return (hypothetical): total tax $13,000, adjusted gross income $59,500

Every figure below was computed in whole dollars, rounding at each line. Income tax is figured from the rate schedule; the Tax Table that Form 1040 requires under $100,000 of taxable income can differ by a dollar or two.

Her projected federal tax is 21.7% of profit. Because her taxable income is below $201,750, the wage-and-property limit and the service-business exclusion do not apply to her, so only the taxable-income cap is in play. The cap is why the deduction is $13,880 instead of $17,100. Leave the cap out and the tax comes to $19,217 instead of $19,925, an error of $708 that looks like a small win in the projection and shows up as a bill in April.

Dana's marginal rate

Her taxable income is $55,520, which is $5,120 above the $50,400 floor of the 22% bracket. Her last dollars of taxable income are taxed at 22%. That does not mean an extra $1,000 of profit costs $220. Each extra $1,000 of profit costs Dana about $305 in combined tax:

• about $141 more self-employment tax, because $1,000 x 0.9235 x 15.3% is $141;
• about $164 more income tax, because the half-SE deduction takes $71 off, leaving about $929 of extra income, and the QBI cap means only 80% of that, about $743, reaches taxable income at 22%.

The same two effects run in reverse when you cut profit. They also run out near a bracket edge, which matters in the next section.

Safe harbor and the January 15 payment: three different numbers

Publication 505 (2026) gives the general rule. You must pay estimated tax for 2026 if you expect to owe at least $1,000 after withholding and credits and expect your withholding and credits to be less than the smaller of 90% of your 2026 tax or 100% of your 2025 tax. If your 2025 adjusted gross income was more than $150,000 ($75,000 if married filing separately), you substitute 110% for 100%. Publication 505 adds that you "must usually pay this difference in four equal installments," and the penalty "is figured separately for each payment period." Our guide to the estimated tax safe harbor covers the penalty mechanics.

Dana's numbers:

These are different questions with different answers. The penalty question has a $3,250 answer. The cash question has a $10,175 answer, and a freelancer who confuses them will be surprised in April by a $6,925 bill that was entirely predictable and entirely legal. Neither is the right number for everyone: if your income is falling, the 90% test may be the lower one.

Two cautions about the penalty figure. First, it holds only because Dana paid every earlier installment in full and on time. A big January payment does not repair a missed April or June payment, since the penalty is figured period by period. If your income arrived unevenly, the annualized income installment method may reduce or erase a penalty on Form 2210.

Second, Publication 505 notes an exception: if you file your 2026 return by January 31, 2027 and pay the rest of the tax you owe, you do not need to make the January 15, 2027 payment. January 31, 2027 is a Sunday, and the Form 1040-ES instructions give February 1, 2027. That exception only moves the date you pay. It does not reduce what you owe.

To pay, see Direct Pay vs. card vs. check.

What each year-end move is worth in Dana's household

Here is the table the usual advice leaves out. Each row recomputes Dana's whole return with one change, again in whole dollars.

Four things to notice.

A business expense saves about 30 cents per dollar, not 22. It cuts self-employment tax as well as income tax. At $5,000, self-employment tax falls from $12,999 to $12,293 ($706) and income tax from $6,926 to $6,108 ($818). That is the entire $1,524.

It is still a cost. The $5,000 expense costs $3,476 after tax. Buying something the business does not need to capture a deduction trades a dollar for about 30 cents.

A traditional retirement contribution saves less per dollar, about 17.6 cents. It does not touch self-employment tax. And because it lowers income in a household where the QBI cap binds, it also lowers the QBI deduction: $5,000 off adjusted gross income takes $1,000 off the cap, so taxable income falls only $4,000, and $4,000 x 22% is $880. This assumes the contribution fits within the plan's limit and is deductible; the SEP vs. solo 401(k) guide covers the limits, and the retroactive adoption post covers deadlines that differ by plan.

The $10,000 rows prove the bracket edge. Two $5,000 expenses would save $3,048, but a $10,000 expense saves $2,817. Dana's taxable income crosses the $50,400 line once it drops by more than $5,120, which for an expense happens at about $6,887 and for a retirement contribution at about $6,400. Past that point, each dollar of reduction is taxed at 12% instead of 22%, so the saving shrinks. This is the straddling problem: a large deduction does not have one marginal rate. If you are within a few thousand dollars of a bracket edge, recompute rather than multiply.

Two related timing levers deserve a sentence each. Deferring a December invoice into January has the same arithmetic as a $5,000 expense in 2026, but the income lands in 2027, so it helps only if your 2027 rate is not higher. Our accelerate income guide covers the opposite case. And if you buy health insurance through the Marketplace, moving your income can change a credit that is calculated on the same figures, as the Form 8962 guide shows.

Sorting the moves by deadline

Publication 560 also says: "You can set up a SEP for any year as late as the due date (including extensions) of your income tax return for that year." Other plans have different timing, and the mid-year rules for equipment have their own traps, so ask a CPA or EA before relying on a rule you half remember. For the broader checklist, see year-end tax moves for freelancers and the 2026 deadline calendar.

Common projection mistakes

• Ignoring the taxable-income cap on QBI. The cap exists at every income level, and in Dana's case it removed $3,220 of deduction.
• Applying the 22% bracket to the whole bill. The brackets apply to slices of income, and a large deduction can straddle two of them.
• Forgetting that self-employment tax comes first. Half of it reduces income, but the whole of it is part of the bill, and it does not shrink with the standard deduction.
• Treating the safe harbor as the amount you owe. In Dana's example it was $13,000 against a projected $19,925.
• Projecting from last year's profit. Use year-to-date actuals plus a forecast, not a remembered number.
• Ignoring other income. A spouse's wages, a capital gain or an IRA distribution changes taxable income and the QBI cap. The single-filer example above does not fit a joint return, which uses different rate and threshold tables.
• Leaving out state tax. The federal projection is not your total set-aside.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do I need to run a federal tax projection for 2026 in November?

You need year-to-date Schedule C net profit from your books, a realistic estimate of November and December profit, any other income (a spouse's wages, interest, a retirement distribution), the estimated tax payments and withholding you have already made, and your 2025 return (total tax and adjusted gross income) for the safe harbor test. With those you can walk down the Form 1040 in order: net profit, self-employment tax, the deduction for half of it, adjusted gross income, the standard deduction ($16,100 for an unmarried filer in 2026 under Rev. Proc. 2025-32), the qualified business income deduction, taxable income, and the tax from the rate table. The result is federal income and self-employment tax only; your state, any credits you qualify for and any other taxes sit outside it. This is a planning estimate, so have a CPA or EA review it before you rely on it.

How is self-employment tax calculated in a 2026 projection?

Multiply net profit by 92.35% to get net earnings from self-employment. Social security tax of 12.4% applies to that figure up to the 2026 limit of $184,500 (Publication 505 (2026)), and Medicare tax of 2.9% applies to all of it. Schedule SE then lets you deduct 50% of the total self-employment tax as an adjustment to income, so it reduces income tax but not self-employment tax. If you also have W-2 wages the $184,500 limit is shared, and the Additional Medicare Tax can apply at higher incomes, so the simple version here fits a freelancer with no wages and modest income. A CPA or EA should check any return that has both.

Is the qualified business income deduction always 20% of my Schedule C profit?

No. Section 199A caps the deduction at the lesser of the combined qualified business income amount and 20% of taxable income (before the QBI deduction) minus net capital gain, and the W-2 wage and property limit and the specified service business exclusion are additional, independent limits that do not apply when taxable income is at or below the threshold. For 2026 the threshold for an unmarried filer is $201,750 (Rev. Proc. 2025-32). In our example, a single freelancer with $92,000 of profit and no other income gets a deduction of $13,880 rather than $17,100, because 20% of taxable income before the QBI deduction ($69,400, or $13,880) is lower than 20% of qualified business income ($85,500, or $17,100). Ignoring the cap and taking 20% of qualified business income ($17,100) would overstate the deduction by $3,220 and understate the tax by $708. Confirm the limits that apply to you with a CPA or EA.

Do I have to make the January 15, 2027 estimated tax payment?

Not necessarily. Publication 505 (2026) says you generally owe estimated tax if you expect to owe at least $1,000 for 2026 after withholding and credits and expect your withholding and credits to be less than the smaller of 90% of your 2026 tax or 100% of your 2025 tax (110% of 2025 tax if your 2025 adjusted gross income was more than $150,000). The penalty is figured separately for each payment period, so paying late for earlier quarters is not cured by a big January payment. Publication 505 also says you can skip the January 15, 2027 payment if you file your 2026 return by January 31, 2027 and pay the rest of the tax you owe; the Form 1040-ES instructions give February 1, 2027 because January 31 is a Sunday. Skipping the payment does not remove the tax itself, so confirm the numbers with a CPA or EA.

Does a year-end business purchase or deduction pay for itself in tax savings?

No, a deduction returns only a fraction of what you spend. In our example, a single freelancer with $92,000 of projected profit saves $1,524 of federal income and self-employment tax by spending an extra $5,000 on a genuine business expense before December 31, so the after-tax cost is $3,476. A $5,000 deductible traditional retirement contribution saves $880 in the same household, because the QBI cap binds and shrinks the deduction as taxable income falls. Savings per dollar vary with your taxable income, your brackets, and whether a larger deduction straddles two brackets. Buy what the business needs, and have a CPA or EA model larger moves.

Which year-end moves have to happen by December 31 and which can wait until the filing deadline?

Timing differs by move. Business expenses and income recognized under the cash method generally follow the date you pay or receive them, and equipment is deductible in the year it is placed in service, so those need to happen by December 31, 2026. Publication 560 says that to deduct SEP contributions for a year you must make the contributions by the due date (including extensions) of your tax return for the year, so a traditional SEP contribution can wait; other plans, including a solo 401(k), have their own deadlines. The estimated tax payment for the fourth period is due January 15, 2027. Ask a CPA or EA which of these apply to your situation before year end.

Authoritative References

• IRS: Rev. Proc. 2025-32, 2026 inflation adjustments (standard deduction, rate tables, section 199A threshold)
• IRS: Publication 505 (2026), Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax
• IRS: 2026 Form 1040-ES, Estimated Tax for Individuals
• IRS: Schedule SE (Form 1040), Self-Employment Tax
• IRS: Instructions for Form 8995, Qualified Business Income Deduction Simplified Computation
• IRS: Publication 560, Retirement Plans for Small Business
• 26 U.S.C. 199A, Qualified business income
• IRS: Form 1040 and instructions

Your projection is only as good as your year-to-date profit. Start a free CentSense account, scan receipts with AI as you pay them, log business miles, and export a CSV for your preparer when it is time to run the numbers. The free tier includes 10 AI receipt scans a month, and the Solo plan ($5/month) adds unlimited scans, mileage tracking and CSV export.

This guide is general education for U.S. self-employed people who file as unmarried individuals with no other income. It is not personalized tax advice. The worked example is hypothetical, covers federal tax only, assumes the standard deduction, no credits and no capital gains, and uses 2025 form line numbers that may change for 2026. Brackets, thresholds and limits are indexed or revised often, so confirm your own projection, your estimated payments and any year-end contribution with a CPA or EA before you act.